Skip to main content Skip to secondary navigation

Wildfire dynamics

Main content start
Diagram of machine-learning based LFMC retrievals from microwave and optical data

The frequency, severity, and impacts of wildfires have grown in recent decades in the Western United States, due to a combination of climate change, vegetation (fuel) changes, and population change. We use remote sensing and machine learning to study how drought affects wildfires. We are particularly interested in how atmospheric droughts propagate through different ecosystems to affect the vegetation water content (also known as live fuel moisture content), and how this live fuel moisture content in turn affects wildfire risk and behavior. Because it is highly spatially variable and laborious to measure in situ, live fuel moisture content is arguably among the most poorly understood contributors to wildfire. We have built, and are continuing to build, new high-resolution maps of live fuel moisture content by combining microwave and optical remote sensing with deep learning methodologies. These maps then allow us to use statistical and machine learning methods to study how vegetation and climate-modulated changes in live fuel moisture content affect wildfire behavior, including ignition risk, burned area, and more. We also study how ecosystem live fuel moisture content dynamics interact with climate change and population growth.

Selected Publications

SAR-enhanced mapping of live fuel moisture content
Rao, K., A.P. Williams, J. Fortin Flefil, and A.G. Konings (2020). SAR-enhanced mapping of live fuel moisture content. Remote Sensing of Environment, 245: 111797.

Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerabiliy
Rao, K., A.P. Williams, N.S. Diffenbaugh, M. Yebra, and A.G. Konings (2022). Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 6:332-339.

Dry live fuels increase the likelihood of lightning-caused fires
Rao, K, A.P. Williams, N.S. Diffenbaugh, M. Yebra, C. Bryant, and A.G. Konings (2023). Dry live fuels increase the likelihood of lightning-caused fires. Geophysical Research Letters, 50: e2022GL100975.

Atmospheric variability contributes to increasing wildfire weather, but not as much as global warming
Diffenbaugh, N.S., A.G. Konings, and C.B. Field (2021). Atmospheric variability contributes to increasing wildfire weather, but not as much as global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(46): e2117876118.